ArtaMatch Astrology III: sidereal, place and date is the third edition of a competition aimed at ending the loneliness epidemic by exploring whether astrology can predict relationship longevity. The challenge asks participants to predict whether a marriage between a man and a woman lasted thirty years or longer.
The Data
The competition provides three dates and two places for each couple:
* dob_dad and dob_mom: Birth dates (ordered by sex).
* lat_*/lon_*: Birthplaces.
* start: The date the relationship began (the wedding date).
Participants must determine the probability that the relationship endured for at least 30 years. The dataset includes only married couples between a man and a woman; all individuals in the data are deceased, meaning every marriage has ended.
Astrological Approach Since Wikidata records no birth times, this edition casts every chart at 09:00 local time at the specific birthplace, converted to Universal Time based on historical time zones. This convention allows every chart to have an ascendant and twelve houses. While the Foundation's own models use sidereal systems exclusively (Jyotiṣa via PyJHora and Zǐ Wēi Dǒu Shù via iztro), participants are free to bring any astrological tradition they choose.
Evaluation and Format
* Metric: Area under the ROC curve (AUC) based on the ranking of predicted probabilities against the observed lasted_30_years label.
* Split: A temporal split where models are trained on couples born between 1600–1900 and evaluated on couples born after 1900. No individual appears in both sets.
* Submission: A CSV file with id and lasted_30_years (probability) for each row in the test set.
Prizes Prizes are awarded in ArtaCoin (₳), the internal currency of artaquest.com: * 1st Place: 1,000 ArtaCoin * 2nd Place: 500 ArtaCoin * 3rd Place: 100 ArtaCoin
The bar for success is set by the "plain" baseline using only the partners' ages at the start of the relationship, which achieved an AUC of 0.6189.