ArtaMatch Astrology IV: genderless, any relationship is the fourth competition in the ArtaMatch series, designed to determine if astrology can predict long-term relationships. The goal is to end the loneliness epidemic by finding the best astrological model measured on real people who lived.
The Challenge
Participants are given three dates and two places for pairs of individuals:
- dob_a and dob_b: The birth dates of the two partners (order does not matter).
- lat_*/lon_*: The birthplaces.
- start: The date the relationship began (e.g., wedding date).
The task is to predict the probability that the relationship lasted thirty years or longer. A relationship is considered ended by a recorded end date or the earlier of the two deaths; a death does not automatically imply a short relationship.
Genderless and Order-Agnostic
This edition reads no sex and claims no order. Every pair appears in the data in both orders (a then b, and b then a). The metric penalizes models that assign different scores to the same pair in different orders, encouraging an even function where swapping partners yields the same result. The simplest approach is to score both orders and average them.
Data Scope The dataset includes every long-term relationship recorded in Wikidata, including: - Spouses (same-sex marriages included). - Unmarried partners. - Business or sporting partners. - Significant persons (excluding those with family links).
All individuals in the data are deceased, meaning every relationship has ended. The split is temporal: models are trained on pairs born between 1600–1900 and tested on pairs born after 1900. Test rows where the start date is too recent to have reached thirty years by 2026 are removed.
Birth Time Convention Since Wikidata records no birth times, a convention is used: 09:00 local time at the birthplace, converted to UT based on historical time zones. This allows for the calculation of ascendants and twelve houses for every chart.
Evaluation and Baselines The competition is scored using the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC). - Plain columns baseline: Using only the two ages at the start, their gap, and the start year achieves an AUC of 0.6114. - ArtaModel IV: The Foundation's own sidereal phase model scores 0.6252. - Average: An equal-weight rank average of the plain columns and ArtaModel IV scores 0.6289.
Prizes Prizes are awarded in ArtaCoin (₳), the internal currency of artaquest.com (not cash or cryptocurrency): - 1st Place: 1,000 ArtaCoin - 2nd Place: 500 ArtaCoin - 3rd Place: 100 ArtaCoin
Rankings are determined by the private leaderboard.